這兩天看了Peter Thiel的新作。他在書中對於本問題提到的四象限並沒有多花筆墨，但更換了兩個詞語（Definite Indefinite vs Determinate Indeterminate）。我認為在這個問題上無需爭論過多，每個人所了解到的信息和知識結構不一樣，對世界自然有一個不同的認識。
我想指出的一點是： Peter Thiel is not an economist. He"s an entrepreneur, venture capitalist and hedge fund manager. More so, he is a serious thinker on technology.
從他過去的履歷來看，他主要是一個投資人，包括他在多個演講里提到，Paypal is an training camp,他是把其作為一個投資機會來看待的。他的課程和講座都是有很濃郁的矽谷風險投資人氣質的。事實上，從他的投資履歷來看，他對矽谷科技企業創業的理解力，矽谷創新型企業的發展遇到的挑戰和困難的理解是非常深刻的。並且從他相關問題的分析和他的投資成績來講，他是近年來矽谷創新企業風險投資人中間做的最好的之一。
我說點美國生活5年來的感受：老美或者是大部分外國人都是很開朗和幽默的，而中國人很多時候臉上是默認沒有表情，或者愁眉苦臉，這就是從最淺層反映了出中國是悲觀社會。在美國，人們會友好地打招呼，說「how are you", "have a great weekend" or "happy monday"這種，而中國相對比例低。我思考過為什麼中國和國外會產生這麼大的情緒差別，特別是在中國經濟飛速發展的現在，大致理由是：
A definite pessimist believes the future can be known, but since it will be bleak, he must prepare for it. Perhaps surprisingly, China is probably the most definitely pessimistic place in the world today. When Americans see the Chinese economy grow ferociously fast (10% per year since 2000), we imagine a confident country mastering its future. But that』s because Americans are still optimists, and we project our optimism onto China. From China』s viewpoint, economic growth cannot come fast enough. Every other country is afraid that China is going to take over the world; China is the only country afraid that it won』t.
注意特別是下面這句：
Every other country is afraid that China is going to take over the world; China is the only country afraid that it won』t.
真是一針見血。
b.
China can grow so fast only because its starting base is so low. The easiest way for China to grow is to relentlessly copy what has already worked in the West. And that』s exactly what it』s doing: executing definite plans by burning ever more coal to build ever more factories and skyscrapers. But with a huge population pushing resource prices higher, there』s no way Chinese living standards can ever actually catch up to those of the richest countries, and the Chinese know it.
This is why the Chinese leadership is obsessed with the way in which things threaten to get worse. Every senior Chinese leader experienced famine as a child, so when the Politburo looks to the future, disaster is not an abstraction. The Chinese public, too, knows that winter is coming. Outsiders are fascinated by the great fortunes being made inside China, but they pay less attention to the wealthy Chinese trying hard to get their money out of the country. Poorer Chinese just save everything they can and hope it will be enough. Every class of people in China takes the future deadly seriously.
Every other country is afraid that China is going to take over the world; China is the only country afraid that it won"t. 要我說，很簡單，美國人總是樂觀的，而每個曾經超越過美國的（歐洲是試圖）都是悲觀的，只能說明他是個有學問的「紅脖子」而已…就這麼簡單
這個是peter thiel 的宏觀基金前兩年的投資回報，虧成這樣說明他的宏觀判斷不是太好。
以下來自wikipedia
Clarium was down 4.5% in 2008,[9] down 25% in 2009,[10] and down 23% in 2010.[4] For the first half of 2008, the fund had a YTD return of 57.9%.[11] At the start of 2008, the fund had $4 billion in assets under management,[6] raised to $7.8 billion in June 2008, then dropped to $1.5 billion in July 2009, after investors withdrew money from the fund.[12] The fund lost most of its value in 2008 due to large bets against the US dollar, in the hopes that it would drop in value. The fund subsequently lost 13% in August 2008 and it lost 18% in October 2008. Although the fund eventually recovered, with losses of only 4.5% for 2008 compared to the average of 20% for other hedge funds, most investors had already pulled out their investments. Subsequent down years have reduced the fund"s assets under management to $681M as of December 2010.[4] Clarium Capital Management was reported to have had big losses in 2010.[13] The firm has continued to struggle with bets that it made on inflation and the US dollar.[6]
