經濟學人2018年刊特刊 The World in 2018 pdf 英文掃描版

經濟學人每年年底都會出版一本展望、預測來年全球大趨勢的特刊，以 The world in XXXX 命名，內容涉及到政治，經濟，科技等領域，每一篇都是可當作深讀「論文」的精選文章。

特刊選題全部是將貫穿2018年全年的最熱話題，小夥伴們學起來，18年不怕沒談資。

資源請見文末。

回顧2016年經濟學人年刊封面上的各國領袖，只有中、俄兩國領導人是彩色的。居中的是被歐洲難民政策所困的德國總理默克爾，身旁是即將競選總統的希拉里。

經濟學人2017年特刊封面是八張傳說中能夠占卜命運的塔羅牌，配題為：Planet Trump

2018年經濟學人特刊的封面是63個正在網路上大行其道的表情符號。請仔細觀察封面，你能讀懂這些符號都暗藏了那些玄機嗎？

我看到了幾位領導人，電子通訊，新能源汽車、自由女神、火箭、DNA基因、天文星象、氣候、機器人、脫歐......

以下文章節選自李開復在 The World in 2018 第115頁發表的專欄文章，由創新工場翻譯，主題為 Meet OMO sapiens --- 「 未來世界即將迎來 『OMO』 （Online-Merge-Offline 線上與線下融合）的時代，而中國將有望在全球範圍內首先實現OMO。」

Two years ago, the morning view from my office in northern Beijing was a snaking traffic jam of cars. Today I look down to see a rush of orange and yellow bicycles, as commuters have leapt onto the 「smart」 bicycles that are reshaping rush hour in China』s busiest cities.

兩年前，早上當我從北京的辦公室里往下看，看到的是車水馬龍，擁堵非常嚴重。而今天我再往下看的時候，卻是來去匆匆的橘黃色自行車，這就是現在的上班族騎的「智能」自行車。如今， 「智能」自行車正在悄悄改變中國繁華城區早晚高峰時的景象。

In less than a year Mobike (in which my venture fund invested ) has reached 25m rides per day. That illustrates another force that will be vastly more transformative in 2018: the boundaries between the online and offline worlds are being erased.

「智能」自行車的代表品牌——摩拜單車，是創新工場所投資的一家企業，它在不到一年的時間裡實現了每天2500萬的騎行量。這些都在顯示，在即將到來的2018年，我們將迎來一場有力的變革：線上與線下的界限被消除。

These bikes are not the rusty clunkers you may have seen in old black-and-white photos of China』s capital. They are equipped with solar-powered GPS, accelerator, Bluetooth and a thermos detector. Both NFC (near-field communications) and microphones are activated by smartphone. To sign up to ride, you make a digital payment from your phone, and the bike』s smart lock automatically opens.

這些單車並不是北京早期黑白照片中那些生鏽破舊的自行車，而是裝上了太陽能全球定位系統、加速器、藍牙和熱探測器的智能體。用戶通過智能手機，就能激活車上的近場通訊和麥克風。註冊騎行也很簡單，用手機支付押金後，摩拜單車上的智能鎖就會自動打開。

　As you cycle around the city, the various sensors transmit your moving co-ordinates and other data to a cloud-based server. Each day, millions of cyclists peddling around Chinese megacities generate 20 terabytes of data, which feed back into Mobike』s cloud servers— connecting people, bikes, roads and destinations as one of the world』s largest 「internet of things」 networks. Mobike』s servers use artificial intelligence (AI) to analyse traffic patterns and to balance supply and demand, maximising usage and alerting the company to any problems.

在騎行過程中，各種感測器會把用戶的移動坐標和其他數據傳輸到雲計算伺服器。每天，中國大城市的數百萬摩拜單車會產生20T的數據，並反饋到雲伺服器上，從而將人、自行車、道路和目的地連接起來，構成了全球最大的「物聯網」網路。摩拜單車伺服器採用**人工智慧來分析交通狀況並平衡供需關係**，從而實現效率最大化。

I call this futuristic but imminent world 「OMO」 (online merges with offline). Four factors are enabling the arrival of OMO: rapid smartphone uptake, frictionless payment systems, cheaper and better sensors, and advances in AI. In each of these areas, China is moving extraordinarily fast, and is poised to see the OMO future first.

我把這種現象稱之為即將到來的未來世界「OMO」（線上與線下融合）。四個因素將助力OMO時代的到來：智能手機的大規模應用、流暢的支付系統、質優價廉的感測器、以及人工智慧技術的進步。在所有這些領域，中國的發展速度相當驚人，並且未來將有望首先實現OMO。

China now has 731m people wielding smartphones, all equipped with GPS and other sensors. Some 70% of them use their phones for digital payments, in lieu of credit card or cash. This frictionless digital payment is nearly instantaneous, usually zero-fee, requires no minimum purchase and can be used person-to-person (not only person-to- business, like credit cards).

中國現在有7.31億智能手機用戶，這些智能手機上都配置有全球定位系統和感測器。在這7.31億用戶當中，70%的人在購物時，會使用移動支付取代信用卡或者現金付款。流暢的電子付款幾乎是實時到賬，通常不收取手續費，而且不限制最低購買量。此外，不像銀行卡只能用於個人對企業轉賬，移動支付可以實現個人對個人轉賬。

In the past three years this new way of buying things has taken the Chinese economy by storm. Easy digital payment systems have paved the way for not just Mobike, but also Didi (the Uber of China), Meituan (delivering over 10m take-out meals per day) and many other new companies. Many of these are now also expanding internationally.

在過去的三年里，這種購物方式在中國的經濟領域掀起了一場巨大的風暴。除摩拜單車外，便捷的移動支付系統還為滴滴、美團和許多其他新興企業鋪平了道路。其中滴滴相當於中國的優步，美團每天有1000萬的外賣訂單量。現在這些都在朝著國際化的方向發展。

In the year ahead, more sensors will be added to more tools of daily life, all generating more data. 「Facts」, such as a person』s location, movements and even identity, are beginning to be captured by these sensors and transmitted online. The information will be combined with online data and analysed by AI, transforming the future of many industries.

在未來，我們日常使用的工具中將更普遍地安裝感測器，從而產生更多的數據。這些感測器可以捕捉個人地理位置、動向等信息，並將這些信息傳輸到伺服器。這些信息與在線數據相結合，通過人工智慧技術的分析，將為眾多行業的發展帶來一場變革。

「Autonomous stores」, such as the F5 Future Store (in which my fund also invested) with headquarters in Guangzhou, are devoloping another blueprint for OMO. F5 sells popular items common in regular convenience stores, including hot meals.

F5未來商店也是創新工場投資的一家企業。這是一家自動化商店，總部位於廣州。目前，「自動化商店」正在呈現另一片OMO發展藍圖。F5未來商店出售普通便利店中的各種熱賣單品，包括熱餐。

Like Amazon Go, F5 is fully autonomous (done by machine), from meal preparation to check-out. But in a step ahead of Amazon Go, F5 is scalable and profitable. In the future, these stores will be equipped with sensors that can discern a customer』s identity, movements, behaviour and even intent, as seamlessly as if someone were clicking around an e-commerce website.

跟亞馬遜無人超市Amazon Go的模式類似，F5未來商店從備餐到結賬都通過機器實現了全程自動化，但F5搶先一步，首先實現了規模化和盈利。未來，這些商店都會裝上感測器，識別客戶的身份、動向、行為甚至是意圖，就像用戶瀏覽電子商務網站信息一樣，實現無縫跟蹤。

經濟學人特刊意在引發讀者的思考。是否世界趨勢是不可預測的？你是否已經為一切將要發生的變化做好了準備？

未來是變化中的未來，而不確定性才是唯一的確定性。

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