海圖追蹤 | 特朗普穩贏美國總統大選

美國一個大學教授的預測。

According to one political science professor, Donald Trump is almost a lock to win the presidential election in November.

Helmut Norpoth said onFox and Friendsthat his research gives Trump a 97-99% chance of becoming the 45thPresident of the United States.

Norpoth, a Stony Brook Univ. professor, said his prediction is based on a historical model that has proven accurate in almost every election going back to 1912.

"I"ve looked at elections in the past. And I』ve seen that the New Hampshire primary in particular is a very good predictor of what happens," he explained.

Sandra Smith askedNorpoth whether he has doubts this time around, since this election cycle seems to be like no other before it.

He said that another key factor is that Trump won the first two primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina, while Clinton lost in New Hampshire.

Norpoth said the likelihood of a Trump victory could fall based on the outcome of some of Super Tuesday"s primaries.

He said his prediction of Trump winning the general election is based on Hillary Clinton being the opponent.

Norpothsaid the model was wrong only in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but did not win the White House.