瑞麟資本周報：英國退歐、新興市場引發波動，東南亞地區銷售顯著

瑞麟資本投資管理部負責人Duncan Donald先生，分享全球金融市場一周概要。瑞麟資本是歐笙投資母公司瑞麟集團的核心組成部分，辦公地點位於英國倫敦，是中歐結合的金融平台。為投資者在地產、私募以及流動與固定資產市場方面提供廣泛的投資機會與一站式的管理服務。

同時，瑞麟資本也可以通過銀行的金融服務平台管理投資、發行支付卡，以及向高凈值人群提供財富管理和支付解決方案。

以下為Duncan Donald先生一周全球金融市場回顧的主要觀點，以供投資者決策參考。

01.英國退歐引起金融市場波動，GDP月率上升0.3％

夏天即將結束，金融市場上周是一個典型動蕩的一周。貿易戰顯示：英國退歐和新興市場的形勢佔據了頭條新聞並帶來波動。

在英國，歐盟的Barnier和脫歐談判代表Raab的會談正在進行中，甚至可能在上周進行適度的進步。 Barnier聲稱85％的英國脫歐提案是令人滿意的，這自然會給市場帶來輕微的積極影響，但當然最終15％的優勢點以及是否可以找到互惠妥協將是關鍵進展。由於「消息來源」聲稱德國的Angela Merkel準備與英國保持一致以確保未來貿易，這對英鎊確實帶來了積極影響，自然的，德國支持者及其在歐盟內部的影響對英國來說將會非常積極，但在幾個小時內，默克爾本人否認了這一說法並且市場得到了適當的糾正。

談判的關鍵方面是愛爾蘭的邊境問題以及「何時」或「如果」可以實現。上周表現出一些進展，但仍然存在困難。

本周我們已經看到國內生產總值數據的公布，儘管英國脫歐的背景下，其國內生產總值月率仍然上升0.3％，其中以服務業領先。星期二發布了平均收入和就業數據，預計兩者都會帶來更大的積極影響。周四， Mark Carneys貨幣政策委員會會議在中午舉行。在上個月英國加息以及來自英國的持續積極數據背後，沒有預期會議的利率變動，唯一的潛在波動來自英國退歐聲明發布後的評論。

With the markets exiting the summer holiday period it was another typically volatile week last week. Obviously, the trade war narrative, Brexit and the Emerging markets situation dominated the headlines and brought volatility.

In the UK the talks between the EU』s Barnier and Brexit negotiator Raab were ongoing and it could even be argued moderately progressive last week. Barnier was vocal in stating that 85% of the UK』s proposal was agreeable, naturally this brought slight positivity to the markets, but of course the finer points of what is in that final 15% and whether mutually beneficial compromise can be found will be key for progression. There was also a whipsaw in the markets as 「sources」 claimed that Germany』s Angela Merkel was prepared to be accommodative with the UK to ensure future trade, this really brought positivity to the pound, naturally, Germanys support and their influence within the EU would have been enormously positive for the UK, but within a couple of hours this statement was denied by Merkel herself and the market duly corrected.

The crucial aspect of the negotiations lays with the border control in Ireland and 『when』 or 『if』 this can be achieved. The last week showed some progress but this remains the potential stumbling bloc for progress.

This week we have already seen the release on GDP numbers which showed a 0.3% monthly rise in GDP despite the Brexit backdrop, with the services sector leading the way. Tuesday brings us Average Earnings and Employment data, both are expected to bring further positivity. Thursday, we have Mark Carneys Monetary Policy Committee meeting at midday. On the back of a UK rate hike last month and continually positive data from the UK there is no expectation for rate movement from this meeting, with the only potential volatility coming from any Brexit comments upon release of the statement, or from Mark Carney when he speaks on Friday.

02.預測美聯儲準備本月再次加息

美國關鍵經濟指標在周五公布就業數據後依然強勁。非農就業人數為20.1萬，高於預期19.1萬，上個月則為14.7萬。平均收益數據也有很大的優勢。由於特朗普將貿易戰的注意力轉移到日本以及對領先的美國科技公司實施更嚴格的監管，美國股市和貨幣本周走勢較為沉重，所以這種積極性是值得歡迎的消息。金融市場注意力轉向了美國的利率以及他們是否會在9月份加息，經濟學家們正在試圖改變形勢，原因是有70％預測加息可能會出現問題。

就在周五倫敦收盤前，我們確實看到特朗普表示他正在考慮額外向中國商品徵收2670億美元的關稅，此外還有已知的500億美元和200億美元。這拖累了重磅股並將標準普爾指數降至每周低點2,863點，因此這是標準普爾指數在相當一段時間內首次出現下跌，但迄今仍為7.8％。但是，市場出現緊張情緒，特朗普幾乎所有中國進口產品都受到最新威脅，因此我們可能會看到中國對這些威脅自然的反擊。

在美國周三公布了PPI數據，隨後是周四的通脹數據，以及周五的零售銷售，市場將等待幾乎最終確認貿易戰，美聯儲可能準備本月再次加息。

In the US key economic indicators remained strong with the release of employment data on Friday. Non-Farm Payrolls came in above expectation at 201k against expectation of 191k and last months number of 147k. There was also a strong beat in Average Earnings numbers. US stocks and the currency had been having a heavier week with Trump shifting his trade war attentions on Japan and the implementation of greater regulation on leading US tech companies, so this positivity was welcome news. Attention turned to US rates and whether they will hike in September, with economists revising their thoughts and 70% now forecasting a hike could be on the cards.

Just before the London close on Friday we did see Trump state that he was considering an additional $267 Billion of tariffs onto Chinese goods in addition $50 Billion and $200 Billion already known. This weighed heavy and brought the S&P down to the weekly lows at 2,863 so whilst it was the first down turn we have seen in the S&P in quite some time it remains 7.8% up on the year to date. But, there is a nervousness in the markets, with the latest threat Trump has encapsulated virtually all Chinese imports, so it is likely we could see natural retaliation from China to these threats.

This week in the States we see the release of PPI data on Wednesday followed by Inflation data Thursday and finally Retail sales on Friday where the market will await almost final confirmation that trade war aside the Federal Reserve could be prepared to hike again this month.

03.右翼佔據立足點使亞洲歐元走低，歐洲央行對利率收緊表示滿意

歐元區度過了有趣的一周，首先是有消息稱瑞典選舉沒有帶來明顯的勝利，他們將不會有數周甚至數月的內部談判來組建一個領導黨。令人擔憂的是，被認為是右翼的反歐盟和移民黨佔據了一個強有力的立足點，這使亞洲的歐元走低。上周德國工業生產也令汽車行業出現問題的原因令人失望。

本周四，當馬里奧德拉吉提出歐洲央行的利率決定時，所有的目光都集中在歐洲央行。歐洲央行似乎對穩定的利率收緊態度感到滿意。預計他們將重申在12月停止資產購買計劃。認識到歐洲央行不太可能在至少2019年夏天之前實現利率正常化。但在他的聲明中，我們將有機會聽取德拉吉先生作為歐洲央行領導人的最後一次會議。他肯定會在關於英國退歐、新興市場擴大、貿易戰、義大利債券、瑞典及其自己的繼任者的問答環節中遇到問題，並列出了歐洲這樣的潛在絆腳石，難怪他們是小心翼翼地考慮他們的速度路徑而不急於起飛。

In the Eurozone we also have an interesting week ahead. It started with the news that the Swedish election had brought no clear victor and they will no have weeks and possibly months of internal negotiations to form a leading party. What is a concern is that the perceived right-wing anti-EU and immigration party took a strong foothold, this brought out the Euro lower in Asia open. Last weeks German Industrial production was also a disappointment with problems in the auto sector attributed to the lower reading.

All eyes will be on the ECB on Thursday this week, when Mario Draghi delivers the ECB』s interest rate decision. The ECB seem content with a steady approach to the tightening of interest rates. It is expected that they will reiterate that they will cease with the asset purchasing programme in December. Perception is that the ECB will unlikely move towards interest rate normalisation until at least summer 2019. But in his statement, we will get a chance to hear from Mr Draghi in one of his last meetings as ECB leader. He will most certainly be met with questions in the Q&A session regarding Brexit, Emerging Markets Contagion, Trade War, Italian Bonds, Sweden and his own successor, with a list of potential stumbling blocks for Europe like that, it is little wonder they are carefully considering their.

04.南非及土耳其貨幣下跌，東南亞國家銷售顯著

在新興市場，我們本周開始看一眼熟悉的南非和土耳其貨幣當天下跌1％。隨著新興亞洲的增長令人擔憂，馬來西亞，菲律賓和印度尼西亞出現了顯著的銷售起色。

雷達的主要活動將是本周晚些時候舉行的土耳其和俄羅斯中央銀行會議，雙方將有機會展示他們將在多大程度上保護其陷入困境的股市和貨幣。我們都知道，Erdogan一直以來都非常反加息，但此時它似乎是保護經濟的少有的幾種選擇之一。

In the Emerging markets we start the week looking at the familiar sight of South Africa and Turkish currency sitting 1% down on the day. We again saw a week of limited progress last week with just one day in the 『green』 naturally fears over contagion continue to grow with Emerging Asia growing with concern as Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia saw notable selling.

The main event on the radar will be the Turkish and Russian Central Bank Meetings later this week where both will have the opportunity to show how far they will go to protect their ailing stock market and currency. We know that Erdogan has historically been very anti rate hike but at this moment in time it seems one of the few options available to protect the economy.