橋水雄文——How the economic machine works 經濟機器是如何運作的（二）
02-12
橋水對沖基金深度翻譯——An In-Depth Look at Deleveraging, （二）
橋水對沖基金深度翻譯——An In-Depth Look at Deleveraging, （四）橋水對沖基金深度翻譯——An In-Depth Look at Deleveraging, （五）橋水對沖基金深度翻譯——An In-Depth Look at Deleveraging, （六）橋水對沖基金深度翻譯——An In-Depth Look at Deleveraging, （七）橋水對沖基金深度翻譯——An In-Depth Look at Deleveraging, （八）如何抓住大宗商品牛市！（原創獨家）橋水深度報告——一文通讀大宗商品和石油投資周期上期文章鏈接請點擊：
橋水雄文——How the economic machine works 經濟機器是如何運作的（一）
如有疏漏，煩請指正。此文章做交流分享之用，如有洗稿等類似行為，將委託維權騎士依法捍衛相關權利。雷達里奧（Ray Dalio)或許是這個星球最成功的資產管理經理(Asset manager) 他也同時樂於分享。在此篇雄文中，他系統地審述了他對宏觀經濟運行模式的理解，以及對於債務周期的敏銳觀察。我將儘力以我的專業知識提供儘可能客觀，準確的翻譯，和各位硬核金融愛好者們分享。如沒有時間閱讀如此深入的文章，可點擊以下鏈接收看時長為30分鐘的，由雷達里奧個人配音完成的《經濟機器是如何運行的》講解視頻。以下為翻譯第二部分。How the Market-Based System Works 以市場為基準的系統是如何運作的As mentioned, the previously outlined economic players buy and sell both 1) goods and services and 2) financial assets, and they can pay for them with either 1) money or 2) credit. In a market-based system, this exchange takes place through free choice – i.e., there are 「free markets」 in which buyers and sellers of goods, services and financial assets make their transactions in pursuit of their own interests. The production and purchases of financial assets (i.e., lending and investing) is called 「capital formation」. It occurs because both the buyer and seller of these financial assets believe that the transaction is good for them. Those with money and credit provide it to recipients in exchange for the recipients』 「promises」 to pay them more. So, for this process to work well, there must be large numbers of capable providers of capital (i.e., investors/lenders) who choose to give money and credit to large numbers of capable recipients of capital (borrowers and sellers of equity) in exchange for the recipients』 believable claims that they will return amounts of money and credit that are worth more than they were given. While the amount of money in existence is controlled by central banks, the amount of credit in existence can be created out of thin air – i.e., any two willing parties can agree to do a transaction on credit – though this is influenced by central bank policies. In bubbles more credit is created than can be later paid back, which creates busts.我們在上文重點提到的經濟參與者們同時買入/賣出：
1）商品、服務，2）金融資產，而這些參與者可以通過支付他們的1）貨幣，2）信用，在一個以市場為基準運作的經濟系統里，這些交換行為是通過自由選擇決定的，舉例來說，我們擁有「自由市場」，而買家和賣家出於逐利的動機進行交易。這些針對金融資產的生產以及購買（舉例來說，借貸和投資）被稱為「資本形成」，資本形成的出現是由於這些金融資產的買家和賣家相信這些交易是符合自身利益的。這些提供貨幣/信用並支付給收款者將「承諾」在未來支付他們更多。因此，為了使這一過程運轉自如，在市場里我們需要大量的，有足夠能力提供資本的提供者（投資者/債主），並且由他們選擇那些足夠有能力的資本接受者（借方或是權益出售者），他們將選擇去以貨幣或是信用支付給那些相信他們能夠兌現承諾，支付比他們所付出的更高的足額款項/信用（投資回報）。當現有的資本受到央行支配時，足額的信用將被無中生有的「創造」出來，然而這樣的信用創造行為本身受到央行政策的管轄和影響。在金融泡沫里，更多的信用被央行所創造出來，緊接著被足額償付，而這也創造了經濟繁榮。When capital contractions occur, economic contractions also occur, i.e., there is not enough money and/or credit spent on goods, services and financial assets. These contractions typically occur for two reasons, which are most commonly known as recessions (which are contractions within a short-term debt cycle) and depressions (which are contractions within deleveragings). Recessions are typically well understood because they happen often and most of us have experienced them, whereas depressions and deleveragings are typically poorly understood because they happen infrequently and are not widely experienced. 當資本緊縮開始，經濟緊縮同時發生時，舉例來說，系統里缺乏足額貨幣/信用去支付商品，服務以及金融資產。這樣的緊縮由於兩個原因產生，而這些被普遍地認為是經濟衰退。（短期債務周期里嵌套的緊縮）同時也有經濟蕭條（去槓桿周期中的經濟緊縮）金融衰退被普羅大眾所認知到，並且被研究的更為徹底，這是由於這些事件發生的足夠頻繁而且我們都能夠感同身受，然而蕭條和去槓桿並未得到足夠重視，人們也普遍不了解其特性。而這是由於這些事件發生的極為不頻繁而且絕大多數人一生並未經歷過一次。A short-term debt cycle, (which is commonly called the business cycle), arises from a) the rate of growth in spending (i.e., total $ funded by the rates of growth in money and credit) being faster than the rate of growth in the capacity to produce (i.e., total Q) leading to price (P) increases until b) the rate of growth in spending is curtailed by tight money and credit, at which time a recession occurs. In other words, a recession is an economic contraction that is due to a contraction in private sector debt growth arising from tight central bank policy (usually to fight inflation), which ends when the central bank eases. Recessions end when central banks lower interest rates to stimulate demand for goods and services and the credit growth that finances these purchases, because lower interest rates 1) reduce debt service costs; 2) lower monthly payments (de-facto, the costs) of items bought on credit, which stimulates the demand for them; and 3) raise the prices of income-producing assets like stocks, bonds and real estate through the present value effect of discounting their expected cash flows at the lower interest rates, producing a 「wealth effect」 on spending. 一個短期的債務周期（一般被普遍地成為是商業周期），在以下情況里產生 a) 消費增長率（舉例來說，所有的消費將由貨幣以及信用增長的速率所支撐著）遠超於生產率（總生產量Q)而這使得價格（P）增加直到b) 消費增長率被更加緊鎖的貨幣以及信用所截斷。而這往往是衰退周期開始的跡象。換而言之，金融衰退是一種由於在更為緊縮的央行貨幣政策（通常是為了抵禦通脹）而導致的私人部門債務增長，這最終導致了經濟緊縮。而這個周期將在央行寬鬆的時刻結束。衰退開始在中央銀行降低利率以刺激商品服務需求，以及增發創造更多的信用以支撐這些金融交易。這是由於央行降低利率 :1）降低了債務償還成本2）降低了每月為了支付品項而支付的信用費用（事實上來說，是費用和成本），這也同樣刺激了對這些商品品相的需求。3）降低利率提振了可帶來，創造持續收入的資產，比如說，股票，債券以及房地產，在低利率環境中，由於他們的預期現金流折現所帶來的現有價值的溢價，將創造一個在支出消費上的「財富效應」。In contrast:
相比之下：A long-term debt cycle, arises from debts rising faster than both incomes and money until this can』t continue because debt service costs become excessive, typically because interest rates can』t be reduced any more. A deleveraging is the process of reducing debt burdens (i.e., debt and debt service relative to incomes). Deleveragings typically end via a mix of 1) debt reduction,3 2) austerity, 3) redistributions of wealth, and 4) debt一個長期債務周期，在債務中崛起，並且債務保持比收入和貨幣增長更快的速度，這樣的趨勢反覆強化到無法持續，而這是由於對比收入來說償還債務的費用居高不下，通常來說這個時候利率已然降無可降。去槓桿是一個減少債務負擔的過程（舉例來說，債務和相對於收入的債務償付費用）去槓桿通常結束於以下的幾個因素的混合：1）減記債務 2）財政緊縮 3）財富的再分配以及4）債務資本化。3 Debt reductions take the form of some mix of debt write-downs (so the amount of debt to be repaid is reduced), the timing of debt payments being extended and interest rates being reduced. monetization. A depression is the economic contraction phase of a deleveraging. It occurs because the contraction in private sector debt cannot be rectified by the central bank lowering the cost of money. In depressions, a) a large number of debtors have obligations to deliver more money than they have to meet their obligations, and b) monetary policy is ineffective in reducing debt service costs and stimulating credit growth. 經濟蕭條是經濟去槓桿周期的一個階段。它的產生是由於私營部門的債務收縮無法被央行調低貨幣發行成本沖銷的緣故。在金融大蕭條里:a）一大群債務人有義務提供更多的資金兌現他們的承諾。b) 貨幣政策在降低債務償還成本和刺激信用增長方面是低效的。Typically, monetary policy is ineffective in stimulating credit growth either because interest rates can』t be lowered (because interest rates are near 0%) to the point of favorably influencing the economics of spending and capital formation (this produces deflationary deleveragings), or because money growth goes into the purchase of inflation-hedge assets rather than into credit growth, which produces inflationary deleveragings. Depressions are typically ended by central banks printing money to monetize debt in amounts that offset the deflationary depression effects of debt reductions and austerity.
通常來說，貨幣政策在刺激信用增長尤為低效的是由於利率本身難以下調。（由於利率本身已經接近0%）並且無法下調到足以為經濟中的消費支出行為以及資本形成帶來正面效果的地步（這產生了通縮的去槓桿效應）又或者這是由於增發貨幣的增長流入到購買對沖通脹的避險資產中而不是形成信用增長。出於以上原因，這將帶來通脹的去槓桿。金融蕭條通常終結於央行印製鈔票以貨幣化債務，並且由此沖銷來自緊縮型蕭條以及債務銳減和財政緊縮的惡劣影響。To be clear, while depressions are the contraction phase of a deleveraging, deleveragings (e.g., reducing debt burdens) can occur without depressions if they are well managed. 更清晰地解釋是，當大蕭條處於去槓桿的緊縮階段里，去槓桿（舉例來說，減少債務壓力）中的蕭條，如果在債務得以妥善處置的情況下，將免於發生。 (See 」An In-Depth Look at Deleveragings.「譯文請參見文首鏈接) Differences in how governments behave in recessions and deleveragings are good clues that signal which one is happening. For example, in deleveragings, central banks typically 」print「 money that they use to buy large quantities of financial assets in order to compensate for the decline in private sector credit, while these actions are unheard of in recessions.4 Also, in deleveragings, central governments typically spend much, much more to make up for the fall in private sector spending. 各國政府在衰退和去槓桿周期里之間，行為模式的區別對我們來說都是絕佳的信號以明白我們正在經歷些什麼事件。舉例來說，在去槓桿周期里，央行通常以印製鈔票，並以此購買巨量的金融資產以補償私營部門信用的減少。而這些行為在經濟衰退中更是聞所未聞的。還有在去槓桿階段里，中央政府通常支出更多，更多的經費被用以補償私營部門開支的減少而帶來的經濟損失。4 These show up in changes on their balance sheets that don』t occur in recessions. But let『s not get ahead of ourselves. Since these two types of contractions are just parts of two different types of cycles that are explained more completely in this Template, let』s look at the Template.
http://weixin.qq.com/r/8jr64tfEcYoOrZOB92-g (二維碼自動識別)
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