中國人口負增長時代即將到來？
03-17
中國人口負增長時代即將到來？
林立豐 BUMBLEBEE英語課堂 今天中國新聞網 6天前 中國人口即將迎來負增長？日前，一則報告的發布，引發社會的高度關注。這則在北京發布的報告全稱為《人口與勞動綠皮書：中國人口與勞動問題報告No.19》，綠皮書根據調查數據稱，中國人口負增長時代即將到來。
2030年開始中國人口將持續負增長？ 綠皮書由中國社會科學院人口與勞動經濟研究所和社會科學文獻出版社共同發布。其中指出：「對於中國的人口而言，21世紀上半葉發生的最大的人口事件莫過於人口負增長時代的到來。」
綠皮書預測，中國人口將在2029年達到峰值14.42億，從2030年開始進入持續的負增長，2050年減少到13.64億，2065年減少到12.48億，即縮減到1996年的規模。如果總和生育率一直保持在1.6的水平，人口負增長將提前到2027年左右出現，2065年人口將減少到11.72億，相當於1990年的規模。 此外，綠皮書還用了「勢不可當」這個詞來評價中國的人口負增長的在所難免。 綠皮書稱，從理論邏輯上看，長期的人口衰退，尤其是伴隨著不斷加劇的老齡化，勢必會帶來非常不利的社會經濟後果。中國的人口負增長已經勢不可當，從現在開始亟須開展研究和進行政策儲備。 應對人口衰退二孩政策發揮了怎樣作用？
如何面對人口負增長的大趨勢，很多人可能會首先想到「二孩政策」。
2013年11月，《中共中央關於全面深化改革若干重大問題的決定》提出「啟動實施一方是獨生子女的夫婦可生育兩個孩子的政策」，2015年10月中共中央決定「全面實施一對夫婦可生育兩個孩子政策」。 從「單獨二孩」到「全面二孩」，雖然中國生育率提高的幅度不盡如人意，但政策對生育率的積極影響已經開始顯現。 綠皮書援引的數據顯示，中國國家統計局根據全國人口變動抽樣調查數據的推算分析表明，2016年二孩出生數量大幅上升，2017年二孩數量進一步上升至883萬人，比2016年增加了162萬人；二孩佔全部出生人口的比重達到51.2%，比2016年提高了11個百分點。在全部出生嬰兒中，二孩的比例明顯提高，並且超過了50%。
中國老年人口每年凈增746萬
綠皮書顯示，中國已經進入老齡化的中期階段。 對於這一階段，綠皮書作出詳細闡釋：老齡化的中期階段是從2011年開始到2040年左右結束，從2011年開始，中國老年人口進入了一個快速增長時期，2010~2040年老年人口將總共增加2.24億人，年平均增長率為3.62%，平均每年凈增746萬。 在此期間，1950年代和1960年代出生高峰隊列將全部進入老年。在老年人口快速增長的同時，總人口將在2018年左右開始出現負增長，這兩種相反的變化趨勢進一步提高了老齡化的發展速度，老齡化水平在2040年將達到23.84%，平均每年提高0.51個百分點。 綠皮書稱，與前一個階段相比，中期階段老齡化速度提高了3倍。因此，中國老齡化的動力機制已經轉變為以老年人口增長為主導力量。
勞動力資源縮減將會有何影響？ 在過去的一個時期里，中國經歷了勞動力的快速增長，勞動力的無限供給曾經是中國經濟高速發展的重要條件，也曾經是中國經濟比較優勢的重要基礎。進入21世紀後，勞動力供給發生了重大變化。 綠皮書提出，2003年出現的「民工荒」標誌著中國勞動力無限供給時代的結束，而到2013年，勞動年齡人口（16~64歲）比前一年減少了160萬，又標誌著中國潛在勞動力資源縮減時代的到來。 綠皮書還提到，根據聯合國預測結果顯示，中國的勞動年齡人口在未來很長一個時期內將持續地加速減少，到2050年將減少2億人。
勞動力轉為負增長，對於中國經濟而言是一個重大的變數：不僅給勞動力市場供求關係帶來結構性轉變，同時也對各種相關制度的改革提出了迫切要求。
英語新聞來源有：1 China Daily Green paper: Negative population growth looms ahead2 CNN Study: China faces unstoppable population decline by mid-century
A newborn baby. [Photo/IC]China』s population is expected to entera new era of negative growth, according to a green paper released Thursday.China』s population is expected to hit a peak of 1.44 billion in 2029, and start to experience negative growth from 2030 onwards, with the number of people predicted to drop to 1.25 billion in 2065 --the level in 1996, the green paper on China』s population and labor said,quoting forecast figures by the United Nations.
However, if the country』s total fertility rate （總和生育率） – the number of children born to women during their lifetime --continues to be 1.6, China will start experiencing negative population growthin 2027. The total population will shrink to the 1990 level of 1.17 billion in 2065, the green paper noted. The green paper was jointly released by the Institute of Population and Labor Economics at the China Academy of Social Sciences and the Social Sciences Academy Press.
The number of new births for 2018 is estimated at between 15 and 16 million, falling from 17.23 million in 2017,said Huang Kuangshi, an associate researcherwith the National Health Commission』s （國家衛生健康委員會） China Population and Development Research Center.Though the official figures of births in the country in 2018 have yet to be announced, cities, including Qingdao and Liaocheng in Shandong province and Ningbo in Zhejiang province, have released their estimated figures of local births. These cities predicted a dramatic decrease in local newborns, especially second children, in 2018, which might make national population growth turn negative earlier. China relaxed the family planning policy （計劃生育政策） in 2016, allowing all couples to have two children. China』s negative population growth may commence even before 2027, Lu Jiehua, a professor at Peking University, told the21st Century Business Herald.A continuous low fertility rate will result in population decline and population aging （人口老齡化）, posing challenges to society and the economy, the green paper said. Research and coping strategies （應對策略） for the upcoming negative population growth are urgently needed, it said.The paper proposed grasping demographic trends and actively responding to the new challenges in demographic development from various aspects, such as on the basis of material items, human capital and technology. It』s necessary to fully tap the potential of demographic development and manage demographic risks without delay, said the paper.【注釋】1 newborn：新生兒；嬰兒；2 demographic：人口統計學的；（複數名詞）（某個地方或社會的）人口特徵，人口總計數據；（單數名詞）（尤指特定年齡段的）人群；
While China still boasts the worlds largest population, social engineering looks to haveprecipitated an "unstoppable" decline, a recent study suggests.(CNN) China will face an "unstoppable" population decline over the coming decades, with fewer and fewer workers struggling to support an increasingly aging society,according to a report by a leading state-sponsored Chinese thinktank.The report,which comes more than three years since China officially ended its controversial decades-long one-child policy, warns that the "the era of negative population growth is almost here," forecasting that the countrys population will peak at 1.44 billion in 2029.The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences report suggests that the decline in fertility rates will lead to a decrease in overall population to 1990-era levels of 1.172 billion by 2065. World Bank data from 2017 showed a Chinese population of 1.386 billion. The countrys working-age population has stagnated, the report states, while itsdependency ratio -- the number of working people in relation to non-working, largely children and retired people -- continues to skew."In theory,long-term population decline, especially accompanied with the increasing escalation of aging of population, is bound to bring very negative social and economic consequences," the report states, without elaborating on what these consequences could entail.Experts have warned that as Chinas working age population shrinks so too willdomestic consumption, which could have unintended consequences for the global economy,which has relied on China as a growth engine.The report says that the country should start preparing and crafting policy to meet the challenges of the impending decline.
Passengers gather in the waiting hall at Hongqiao Railway Station ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays in 2018. The countrys population is expected to decline by almost 200 million by mid-century.After decades of following a strict one-child policy, in 2015 Beijing announced that it would drop the controversial policy, which, for decades has been blamed for infanticide and forced sterilizations.Under current family planning rules, the majority of Chinese couples are limited to two children,following the easing of the countrys notorious policy, which was enacted in2016.However, the changes failed to produce a spike in the birth rate. In 2017, the countrystotal fertility rate was 1.6 children per woman, well below the 2.1 rate estimated to be necessary to keep the population steady.The current,two-child restrictions look set to be further relaxed under a draft reform to the countrys Civil Code, potentially allowing families to have multiple children for the first time in decades.Despite the projected declines in the worlds most populous nation, the United Nations expects the global population to continue to rise, albeit （儘管） at a slowing rate.A 2017 report from the world body estimated the 2017 number at 7.6 billion, which is expectedto reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion by the end of the century.India, the worlds second-largest country by inhabitants, is expected to overtake China as the worlds most populous by 2024, according to that report.CNNs Yuli Yang contributed to thisreport.
【注釋】1 boast：有，擁有（值得驕傲的成就或財產）；If someone or something can boast a particular achievement or possession, they have achieved or possess that thing；2 precipitate：使（通常指不好的事件或形勢）突然發生；加速；If something precipitates an event or situation, usually a bad one, it causes it to happen suddenly or sooner than normal；3 skew：影響····的準確性；歪曲；扭曲；If something is skewed, it is changed or affected to some extent by a new or unusual factor, and so is not correct or normal；4 entail：使···必然發生；勢必造成；使····成為必需；If one thing entails another, it involves it or causes it；5 impending：即將發生的；逼近的；An impending event is one that is going to happen very soon；6 spike：（價格、數量的）突然上升，劇增；If there is a spike in the price, volume, or amount of something, the price, volume, or amount of it suddenly increases；
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